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| English: Illustration of antigenic shift (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
H1N1 Flu Outbreak
PARIS — The global outbreak of Influenza A (H1N1) hovering just below the pandemic threshold could provide immunity for those already infected if the virus mutates into a more deadly form, scientists told AFP.
That is what happened in 1918, when most people who fell ill with a mild Spring flu were effectively innoculated from the far more lethal strains that roared back a few months later and killed at least 40 million worldwide, according to recent studies.
The death rate among those infected during the first wave was 70 per cent lower, according to groundbreaking research published in November in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.
The findings suggest that going all-out to prevent exposure to the kind of non-seasonal flu sweeping across the world today may turn out to be counter-productive in the fight to reduce mortality.
“In a scenario similar to the 1918 pandemic, we would not want to mitigate a ‘friendly’ first wave,” said Mr Cecile Viboud, a scientist at the United States National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland who contributed to the study.
Indeed, a senior official of the World Health Organization (WHO) said that people who get — and recover from — the H1N1 flu now would be more protected from a similar virus in the future.
Mr Keiji Fukuda, WHO’s “flu chief” — said that influenza infections generally confer some degree of immunity “for a couple of years”.
“In 1918, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it would have been better to allow a first wave of infection in order to build immunity to the emerging virus while it was still mild,” said Mr Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist at George Washington University and a co-author of the November study.
Like the early phase of the devastating pandemic nearly a century ago, the current outbreak of the H1N1 flu has spread widely but caused few deaths.
In the last two weeks, it has spread to 23 countries and infected more than 2,099 people, including 42 deaths in Mexico and two in the US. AFP
From TODAY, News – Friday, 08-May-2009
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